Microsoft buying Activision Blizzard is a nail in the gaming industry's coffin

Activision Source: Windows Primal

If you haven't heard the news yet, here's the scoop: Microsoft just plonked down about $lxx billion to gobble up Activision Blizzard, the company famous for Call of Duty, World of Warcraft, and getting sued past California for sexual harassment and toxic workplace practices.

That'southward a big bargain — arguably the biggest literal bargain to e'er grace the gaming industry. Merely fifty-fifty though it's massive news, there's a question to exist asked: Is it good news for anyone besides Xbox?

Based on all the evidence, not really, especially in the longterm. Xbox gaining a much larger stake in the video game industry not only pushes industry consolidation into only a few large companies, but can stifle innovation among newer IPs and signal the death of others.

The biggest fish in the body of water

Phil Spencer Xbox 20 Celebration Source: Microsoft

Before we swoop in, it'due south highly recommended you read what analysts have to say about Microsoft'southward Activision conquering. Whether or not you agree with the theories presented at that place and in this article, they're all based on industry patterns.

Let'due south start with the obvious danger this supremely expensive deal presents: hyper consolidation of an industry already leap to a few key players, at to the lowest degree on the console and "AAA" game side of things. Certain, there are Google and Apple for mobile games, just when it comes to the PC and console experiences gaming enthusiasts crave, there are only a few big boys on the block. And now? Even fewer.

The competition'south getting thin. As of right at present, we have Microsoft, Sony, Nintendo, and whomever Microsoft's adjacent acquisition prey is. EA, Square Enix, and Ubisoft's days are numbered at this rate. Sony doesn't take the cash flow to pull these sorts of seismic stunts, and Nintendo's been playing by itself in the corner for a long time now.

Starting time Rare, and so Mojang, followed by ZeniMax Media (Bethesda), and now Activision Blizzard — each time the maw of Redmond opens, it gain to take a bigger bite of the industry (information technology's gobbled upwards way more studios and companies than just those four, but said quartet are big ones). On the surface, there's cypher wrong with an acquisition. Big fish swallow small-scale fish; it's the way of the world. But what happens when one fish grows and so gluttonous that its former rivals accept little food for themselves?

Betwixt Microsoft outright ownership the biggest games on the planet and making certain everything of less importance is bound exclusively to Game Pass, information technology's a scary time to exist a competitor. Sure, Sony'south PlayStation segmentation is doing well at present, but you better believe some of the company'southward suits are sweating bullets thinking nigh future contest optics with Xbox market prospects growing exponentially more than impressive by the day.

The fate of peripheral IPs

Crash Bandicoot 4 Image Source: Activision

Even if yous couldn't care less virtually industry wellness and the state of competition, think well-nigh what Microsoft itself will do with its newfound riches. There is the chance that now-CEO of Microsoft Gaming Phil Spencer will greenlight a lot of not bad projects utilizing Activision-endemic IPs that haven't gotten much beloved in contempo years. But there'southward as well the hazard Microsoft will permit the niche items wither and die.

Have, for example, Crash Bandicoot. The orange fella didn't become much honey from Activision for a while until a contempo rebirth with Crash Bandicoot 4: It's About Fourth dimension, besides as the kart racing spinoff and N-Sane trilogy. Will Microsoft give characters like Crash and Spyro their time in the dominicus? Look back at the only other major cartoon icon Microsoft gained from an conquering — Banjo (of Banjo-Kazooie fame) — for your respond. Spoiler: Banjo has been in a retirement home for a long, long time, and Microsoft doesn't visit him. And don't even mention what happened to Conker.

The betoken is, there's a gamble Xbox will pull an Ori and give Crash and Spyro dearest. But Microsoft has shown a preference for burly military guys and fast cars over loveable cartoon mascots. 2 gaming legends may have gone from a bad home to a worse one.

Consolidating a nightmare of mediocrity

Call of Duty: Warzone Source: Activision

With regards to that mention of burly guys with guns and speedy automobiles, it'south worth noting Activision's marquee property Call of Duty fits in very, very well with Xbox's lineup of franchises that will spin in identify in perpetuity. Await at Gears, Forza, and Halo — great if y'all've played any single title in isolation (like the contempo Halo Infinite or Forza Horizon five), but all are redundant franchises if you look at their diverse installments as a commonage torso of work, even if a lot of recent titles take pushed those franchises frontward. Call of Duty fits right in with that lineup. Competent, assembly line produced, and hands replicable potato chips for the masses.

The spud fries analogy fits in with Microsoft's Game Pass philosophy. Simply similar how Netflix puts an emphasis on rampage-able content, Xbox looks set to create an annual lineup where the bar is "sellable quality" rather than, say, Sony'southward starkly contrasted accent on "tour-de-force experience" quality. Even Microsoft admits it's jealous of games such as The Last of Us Part II. Information technology knows full well the deviation betwixt its titles and Sony's, although with the ZeniMax acquisition, the difference was made narrower than ever.

What if the Microsoft storm manages to overwhelm the contest, then? What if Xbox purchasing every related company under the dominicus lands u.s.a. in a gaming era where Microsoft and its Infinity Gauntlet (read: Windows and Azure profits) make the gaming mural such that instead of replicating the magic of rivals' games, Redmond simply overshadows and quashes them with its unending, subscription-bound lineup of digestible, amorphous gaming "content"? One company leading the charge on what is successful in an industry every bit large as video games tin can exist dangerous for anybody who doesn't want to follow in its stead.

Too many dangers to imagine

MAster Chief Source: Microsoft

There's a run a risk that Xbox will let its recently-acquired studios operate relatively autonomously and everything will be business concern as usual for consumers, with the only real divergence being Microsoft making a lot more coin behind the scenes every quarter. There'southward as well the gamble Microsoft will unintentionally bork everything information technology touches, ruining what once were capable studios, although that hasn't often been the case with its smaller acquisitions.

And speaking of chances, Switch and PlayStation owners meliorate become ready for an era where, between Game Laissez passer and acquisitions, the odds are solid a lot of their favorite franchises volition be treating them like second-class citizens. Timed DLCs and exclusive releases are just the tip of the iceberg.

Peradventure everything will work out to consumers' satisfaction regardless of which ecosystem they adopt and the existing industry players will exist perfectly fine with an Activision-shaped hole in their hearts. But the potential consequences of this deal, for thousands upon thousands of developers and millions of consumers, cannot be underestimated.

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